The January inauguration of the 47th president has already created sweeping change. Additionally, even before the transition of office, many small and medium sized business owners signaled a positive outlook for 2025. That confidence has been echoed in a Vistage Survey, which found 55% of CEOs in small- to medium-sized businesses look forward to changes from the new administration with optimism. Vistage has measured CEO sentiment of small and medium sized businesses each quarter since 2003.
In Q4 of 2024, CEOs demonstrated their approval with a rise in confidence to 100.8. This was a 15.7 quarter-over-quarter increase recorded, the highest since Q2 2021, from the CEO Confidence Index from Vistage, a peer advisory organization. The increase in optimism should pave the way for new investment and hiring among these businesses and could exceed both pre-pandemic and decade-long averages, according to the report. 65% of CEOs expect hiring to increase in 2025, and 30% expect the total number of employees to remain steady.
Confidence among the CEOs surveyed found 55% believe there will be improvements in the economy over the next 12 months. Economic factors are shaped by the policies enacted by the administration, including trade relations, inflation and consumer confidence. The jump of 55% is a sizeable increase from 32% recorded in Q3 2024 and 21% in Q4 2023. When asked what could be attributed to the rise in confidence, more than half answered a change in administration.
“We ended 2024 with a significant boost to CEO confidence, an indicator of the long-awaited growth cycle forecasted to begin in 2025,” said Joe Galvin, chief research officer, Vistage. “More than half of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the coming year with many optimistic about the new administration and the potential for pro-business policies, reduced regulations, lower inflation and reduced borrowing to drive investment and fuel growth.”
These sentiments are in alignment with the 2025 forecast from ITR Economic. This includes cuts in interest rates that will help stimulate the economy and make investment more cost-effective for small- and medium-sized business owners, according to Lauren Saidel-Baker, CFA and economist at ITR Economics, an economic research and consulting firm.
Q4 2024 Highlights
- 65% anticipate tax policy changes will positively impact their business.
- 60% anticipate tariffs and trade policies will negatively impact their business.
- 52% anticipate regulatory compliance changes will positively impact their business.
- 44% expect new labor and employment laws to positively impact their business.
- 32% expect environmental and sustainability policies to positively impact their organization.
- 30% expect healthcare policy changes to positively impact their organization.
Vistage
